Q 1 2009 GDP

This is a difficult call as there are many cross currents. From my perspective the range is wide. Some signs of stabilization from the US consumer diverges with the continued collapse in global trade. Unemployment continues to increase rapidly and although this is a lagging indicator it may not be as lagging as it used to be as companies seem to move much faster nowadays compared to the past when cutting jobs. Housing is at the very least slowing its rapid decline. Corporations though will probably continue to hunker down.

All right my call is a gut one and I am not as confident in it as I was the Q4 2008 GDP annualized number. Q 1 was still declining and my guess is that the annualized rate of -2% to -4%.

Inventories are going to have an effect this quarter and the size of the decline will depend on the rate of decline in the inventories. Exports and the US consumer are a little easier to peg.

Not sure when the first estimate comes out but I figured to go on the record with my very rough prediction.