Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Kerviel Went From +$2 Billion To -$7.2 Billion

Let me get this straight, Jerome Kerviel the Soc Gen trader who wound up losing $7.2 billion of the bank's capital, was actually up $2 billion on December 31, 20007! Wow that must have been a brutal 2 weeks. I thought I was having a tough couple of weeks but he had two weeks for the ages. Crazy that $9.2 billion wiped out in 2 weeks!

Here is what I would say to Kerviel, if I were interviewing him:

You are up $2 billion, why not call it a day, close the positions and ring up the register? Bonus time was coming as this was late December. You could then show the results to your managers and collect your bonus. Although one question I wonder about is what would have happened if you showed your managers that you had taken such large and risky positions even if you had made $2 billion. $2 billion is Soros like. Man you were the king, to be able do it all over again; all you had to do was tell your bosses. Or maybe what you could have done is close the positions and then see what happens as the books were tallied and an extra $2 billion popped out. Couldn't you just tell your bosses what was going on? Maybe you were not that close to your bosses. But you had to assume that at some point even if you were up a couple of bill that someone would have found out. Too bad for your sake and theirs that they did not find this out on Dec 31st when you were up $2 billion.

I read many article on this subject but this one from CBS market watch was the best one:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/kerviel-wanted-make-money-my/story.aspx?guid=C603307D-4E88-4776-8C6C-D04D84A52607&dist=SecMostEmailed

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