Market Volatility Continues - This Week Upside , Next Week?

With the markets in a wild trading range over the past 5 weeks, the equity markets moved up about 5% this week. I believe this was only the second up week in the last 8. US Treasury Secretary Geithner went to Poland and tried to push the EU to get in front of the Eurozone's financial problems. Whether his nudge works, remains to be seen.

At times, it seems like the cycle will not end. One day the financial world is in a panic as Europe's sovereign debt problem pops up and cause problems in the financial markets. And the next the markets soar as the EU applies some type of temporary band aid solution. At some point something has to give. Some times it takes a crisis for governments to move. In 2008, after the TARP was voted down the Dow lost about 700 points. Maybe Europe needs something similar - a real crisis to force real action.

Has Negative Market Sentiment Gone Too Far?

Market sentiment was so negative of late. The Vix on MOnday went to 48. Highs not seen since the 2008 / 2009.

People every where keep asking me about the market. More so than at the bottom in 2008 / 2009. Everyone (Newstand guy, coffee guy, and the bagel guy, friends frm school) I talk to is worried.

As a contrarian, things rarely seem as scary in the equity markets as they do now. Maybe time to at least dip a toe in.

Wow

Well the last post was completely wrong. Just a bad call. The strength of the market in early summer (Nasdaq at 10 year highs) led me to believe that the stock market was looking ahead to much better times. Obviously the macro economic picture of bond market implosions in Europe followed by the debt fiasco in the US followed by the downgrade of the US credit rating has taken its toll. Full fledge bear market? Pretty close to there in the indices already.

at 2:30 PM today:

The Dow at 10,907, down 540

The Nasdaq at 2376 down 155

The S&P at 1126 down 73

Gold up 64 points

Portfolio Managers Scramble To Enter Bull Market

For what its worth I have not seen a stock market this strong or powerful since 1999. This stock market wants to go much higer at a very fast clip. Latest evidence? The ugly employment data this morning that had the markets down 150. But it did not stay there and stocks like Apple and Linked In are moving higher fast. Portfolio managers are underinvested awaiting the never arriving pullback. Huge strength in the tech sector leading the charge. But the advance is spreading out across board. The bears are trapped, as are those hesitant bulls. The economy? weak. No real growth to be seen. But the markets are sniffing something out. maybe next year we will have a mini boom/ Hard to know just that the smart money is moving rapidly into the US equity markets.The Nasdaq is at 10 - 11 year highs.

Thoughts to Those Affected by Tornadoes

You have to feel for all of the people affected by the tornadoes in the mid west over the past month. Also the tornadoes that hit the south. This has been a rough spring with over 1000 tornadoes so far. Thoughts and prayers to those affected.

Storms in West

You have to feel for all of the people affected by the tornadoes in the mid west over the past week. Also the tornadoes that hit the south last month. This has been a rough spring with over 1000 tornadoes so far. Thoughts and prayers to those affected.

Thoughts and Prayers With Japan

I feel for the people of Japan following the earthquake and the tsunami that ensued. The scenes on TV from the area are very saddening. I will post some web sites that I think may be able to help Japan in the days ahead.

Equity Markets Shift Concerns to Oil

The world equity markets have been on a tear to the upside since August. Since November, a second leg up has taken place. With the chaos started erupting in the Middle East first with Tunisia and then Egypt, the equity markets marched up without much of a hiccup. The thinking may have been that there was little blood shed (which of course is great) and that oil supply disruption was negligible. However with the unrest in Libya turning into a violent situation, the unknowns about world oil supply start to go up. Since world economies have been strengthening, questions about energy supplies could cause large oil price spikes. Already the barrel is up about $10 in the US. Gasoline prices have also followed suit.

A Benefit for Xavier Alumnus Mike Glover

On Saturday January 22nd 2011, there will be a scholarship fundraiser in the memory of LCpl. Mike Glover of the US Marine Corps at Xavier High School in New York City from 7 PM - 11 PM.

I recently read about Mike on Linked In as he was an alumnus of Xavier High School. From what I read, he exemplified the Xavier and Jesuit motto of "One for others" as a son, brother, uncle, grandson, friend and Marine. In these days when the term hero can be overused Mike personifies that definition sacrifice and living for others to his fullest. There is a beautiful video on the web site as well.

Details about the fund raiser can be found at

http://www.friendsofmikeglover.com/

I can think of few better causes to help.

Thanks

Tom Henderson (Xavier alumnus)