Wednesday, February 6, 2008

The Movie 'The Train' and This Bear Market

There is a classic World War Two movie called 'The Train.' It is loosely based on the French Resistance during World War Two and the means it used to stop the Germans from looting French art at the end of the war. The great American actor Burt Lancaster plays the French antagonist Labiche and the German officer is played by Paul Scofield. Turner classics puts it on every once in a while and it is well worth watching if you get the time.

(Sorry for spoiling the movie if you haven't seen it but to get my point across I have to reveal the main plot. So if you want to watch the movie some day and have not seen it, please don't read on.)

In the movie there is a train loaded with French paintings that is headed for Germany. Along the route though it gets sabotaged by the French resistance so it keeps getting delayed. The main leader of the sabotage is Labiche. What I found especially memorable is the will Labiche had to try to stop the train. He was injured and barely could walk and yet he would somehow find a way to sabotage the tracks miles ahead of the train. He would single handedly vandalize the rails. To the German officer he was like a pest with magical powers that kept popping up and that would never go away. The German officer was always muttering to himself, "Labiche!" So as Labiche became obsessed with stopping this train during its journey the German officer becomes obsessed with trying to stop Labiche. It became a matter of wills.

This movie reminds me so much of the current bear market. As Labiche would hound the train to stop the French art from being looted, the current bear market is stalking investors. Every time the German officer thought the train was free to speed to Germany Labiche would thwart his efforts. The same thing can be said about the bear market. The bear is stalking investors and every time investors think they are in the clear (sounds familiar to the last two weeks of January when the Dow roared 1200 points and investors thought they were in the clear) the bear comes back with a vengeance. The Bear market wreaks havoc and is unrelenting in its pursuit of investors just like Labiche was in pursuit of that train. By the end of the movie the German officer was so frustrated he just gave up. And I believe that until investors do the same this bear market will not rest.

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