The Q1 GDP first estimate will be released this week. From Yahoo Finance I picked up the following:
Briefing Forecast: +0.7
Market Expects: +0.4
Prior #: +0.6
Important to note that these are annualized numbers (so they were multiplied by 4). I will throw my hat into the ring and say that the GDP Q1 2008 will have shown a decline.
My Guess: -0.5 (Made on Sunday April 27th)
I only am going off of the earnings reports that I have followed and the economic reports I have followed for the quarter also a ton of anecdotal information in the NYC tri state area. I talk to everyone when I buy something and here around New York City businesses all tell me that things have fallen off pretty hard. On the positive side there are the agricultural commodities and the boom in infrastructure related equipment related to commodities. Also the tech sector was very strong as Google, Intel and others said they have not any pull back. So a large propeller will be the exports. Starbucks has felt the consumer retrenchment though as the ultimate discretionary item moves lower on the list of consumer must haves. In combination with a weak dollar the exports really helped the economy out. Locally here in the US though the consumer was getting beaten around from all sides as the Bear Stearns storm hit, the employment picture sharply weakened and wage growth was weak.
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