Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Currencies

The US $ continues to take a hit and that has been a positive for US equities and for the commodities markets. Gold again is up and now has passed the $1300 mark. But if the US (via hints of quantitative easing or actually moving ahead with QE) continues to push the purchasing power of the dollar down is it accomplish anything? After all if the US$ drops by 1% vs a basket of international currency and then the stock market rises by 1% in terms of other currencies the US stock market is the same value. Also there is a chance that one country looking to quickly devalue could lead others to devalue and a currency race to the bottom ensues.

Perhaps the Fed really has no choice but to embark on QE. The economy seems to be growing but at a very slow pace. And recently there have been speed bumps along the way. The mini Euro melt down back in the Spring slowed down world growth. The US housing market remains in trouble even with the ultra low interest rates and the US unemployment rate remains stuck at close to 9.5%.

Speaking of the unemployment rate, the September data will be released on Friday. This is one week later than the normal release date. The usual release date is on the first Friday of the month after the one that the report is on. Since Sept 30th ended on a Thursday last Friday Oct 1st would have been the first Friday. But I can see the BLS's concern of getting accurate stats out in lieu of a hasty less accurate number.

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